Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
JiJieHao#47 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJiJieHao pick
67%50%
JiJieHao · 8 mapsedge JiJieHao +17%Sangal · 4 maps
AnubisSangal pick
50%57%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsedge Sangal +7%Sangal · 3 maps
CacheJiJieHao ban
44%63%
JiJieHao · 5 mapsedge Sangal +19%Sangal · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
40%29%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsedge JiJieHao +11%Sangal · 3 maps
AncientSangal ban
60%33%
JiJieHao · 6 mapsedge JiJieHao +27%Sangal · 2 maps
NukeJiJieHao ban
50%67%
JiJieHao · 0 mapsedge Sangal +17%Sangal · 5 maps
InfernoSangal ban
50%50%
JiJieHao · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJiJieHao remove Nuke
2. BanSangal remove Inferno
3. PickJiJieHao take Mirage
4. PickSangal take Anubis
5. BanSangal remove Ancient
6. BanJiJieHao remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (40% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
JiJieHao 30%Sangal 70%
The model gave 70% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
JiJieHao 77%Sangal 23%
The model gave 77% on JiJieHao — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteJiJieHao · 79%
Series resultSangal 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2