ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Just Swing#158 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NSNloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNSN pick
40%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge NSN +10%NSN · 2 maps
Dust2Just Swing ban
40%60%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge NSN +20%NSN · 1 map
InfernoJust Swing pick
60%40%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +20%NSN · 1 map
CacheNSN ban
60%50%
Just Swing · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%NSN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJust Swing remove Dust2
2. BanNSN remove Cache
3. PickJust Swing take Inferno
4. PickNSN take Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:4
Just Swing 57%NSN 43%
The model gave 57% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Just Swing 43%NSN 57%
The model gave 57% on NSN — the map was taken by NSN.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
Just Swing 69%NSN 31%
The model gave 69% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Just Swing.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Swing · 58%
Series resultJust Swing 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3