FERJEE In House Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Juventus#191 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJuventus ban
50%48%
Juventus · 0 mapsnearly even +2%Yawara · 17 maps
AncientYawara ban
50%44%
Juventus · 0 mapsedge Juventus +6%Yawara · 12 maps
Dust2Yawara pick
50%50%
Juventus · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 12 maps
AnubisJuventus pick
40%50%
Juventus · 1 mapedge Yawara +10%Yawara · 8 maps
CacheYawara ban
50%20%
Juventus · 0 mapsedge Juventus +30%Yawara · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
Juventus · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 3 maps
DefaultJuventus ban
50%67%
Juventus · 0 mapsedge Yawara +17%Yawara · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJuventus remove Mirage
2. BanYawara remove Cache
3. PickJuventus take Anubis
4. PickYawara take Dust2
5. BanYawara remove Ancient
6. BanJuventus remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
Juventus 59%Yawara 41%
The model gave 59% on Juventus — the map was taken by Yawara.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
Juventus 37%Yawara 63%
The model gave 63% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 53%
Series resultYawara 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2