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WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO5
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 3:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemesis pick
45%56%
K27 · 18 mapsedge Nemesis +11%Nemesis · 21 map
CacheK27 pick
54%69%
K27 · 24 mapsedge Nemesis +15%Nemesis · 9 maps
NukeNemesis pick
50%64%
K27 · 22 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Nemesis · 10 maps
MirageK27 pick
67%50%
K27 · 20 mapsedge K27 +17%Nemesis · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
36%57%
K27 · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +21%Nemesis · 17 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%63%
K27 · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +13%Nemesis · 15 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
69%50%
K27 · 9 mapsedge K27 +19%Nemesis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickNemesis take Ancient
5. PickK27 take Cache
6. PickNemesis take Nuke
DeciderDust2 (36% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
K27 37%Nemesis 63%
The model gave 63% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
K27 69%Nemesis 31%
The model gave 69% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
K27 27%Nemesis 73%
The model gave 73% on Nemesis — the map was taken by K27.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
K27 39%Nemesis 61%
The model gave 61% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
K27 34%Nemesis 66%
The model gave 66% on Nemesis — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 52%
Series resultK27 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 5