CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
KOLESIE#117 in the world · win 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
illwillloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2KOLESIE ban
29%50%
KOLESIE · 10 mapsedge illwill +21%illwill · 8 maps
MirageKOLESIE ban
64%42%
KOLESIE · 10 mapsedge KOLESIE +22%illwill · 8 maps
NukeKOLESIE pick
65%29%
KOLESIE · 13 mapsedge KOLESIE +36%illwill · 3 maps
Overpassillwill pick
57%71%
KOLESIE · 10 mapsedge illwill +14%illwill · 3 maps
Ancientillwill ban
54%43%
KOLESIE · 9 mapsedge KOLESIE +11%illwill · 3 maps
Anubisillwill ban
50%33%
KOLESIE · 8 mapsedge KOLESIE +17%illwill · 2 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
KOLESIE · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +10%illwill · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanKOLESIE remove Dust2
2. Banillwill remove Ancient
3. PickKOLESIE take Nuke
4. Pickillwill take Overpass
5. Banillwill remove Anubis
6. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
KOLESIE 26%illwill 74%
The model gave 74% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Nukeprediction correct16:14
KOLESIE 84%illwill 16%
The model gave 84% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
KOLESIE 72%illwill 28%
The model gave 72% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by KOLESIE.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOLESIE · 81%
Series resultKOLESIE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3