Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Revise#160 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
43%67%
Lavked · 24 mapsedge Revise +24%Revise · 2 maps
Dust2Revise pick
47%67%
Lavked · 15 mapsedge Revise +20%Revise · 2 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Lavked · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 2 maps
AnubisRevise ban
60%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Lavked +10%Revise · 0 maps
NukeRevise ban
40%50%
Lavked · 11 mapsedge Revise +10%Revise · 0 maps
DefaultLavked ban
43%60%
Lavked · 3 mapsedge Revise +17%Revise · 1 map
CacheLavked ban
40%33%
Lavked · 1 mapedge Lavked +7%Revise · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLavked remove Cache
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickLavked take Mirage
4. PickRevise take Dust2
5. BanRevise remove Anubis
6. BanLavked remove Default
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Lavked 25%Revise 75%
The model gave 75% on Revise — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Lavked 53%Revise 47%
The model gave 53% on Lavked — the map was taken by Revise.
Dust2prediction missed13:1
Lavked 31%Revise 69%
The model gave 69% on Revise — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 63%
Series resultLavked 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3