ESEA Open Season 58 Asia · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLFO 9 pick
71%57%
LFO 9 · 3 mapsedge LFO 9 +14%PATSANVISION · 3 maps
Dust2LFO 9 ban
40%57%
LFO 9 · 1 mapedge PATSANVISION +17%PATSANVISION · 3 maps
InfernoPATSANVISION ban
60%50%
LFO 9 · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +10%PATSANVISION · 2 maps
AnubisPATSANVISION ban
60%40%
LFO 9 · 1 mapedge LFO 9 +20%PATSANVISION · 1 map
NukePATSANVISION pick
60%60%
LFO 9 · 1 mapnearly even +0%PATSANVISION · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLFO 9 remove Dust2
2. BanPATSANVISION remove Anubis
3. PickLFO 9 take Mirage
4. PickPATSANVISION take Nuke
5. BanPATSANVISION remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed16:19
LFO 9 63%PATSANVISION 37%
The model gave 63% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by PATSANVISION.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
LFO 9 31%PATSANVISION 69%
The model gave 69% on PATSANVISION — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
LFO 9 69%PATSANVISION 31%
The model gave 69% on LFO 9 — the map was taken by LFO 9.
Model check result
Model favoriteLFO 9 · 60%
Series resultLFO 9 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3