IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Liquid#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
25%56%
Liquid · 4 mapsedge HEROIC +31%HEROIC · 5 maps
InfernoLiquid pick
60%33%
Liquid · 1 mapedge Liquid +27%HEROIC · 5 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
33%25%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Liquid +8%HEROIC · 4 maps
NukeLiquid ban
50%43%
Liquid · 2 mapsedge Liquid +7%HEROIC · 3 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
50%50%
Liquid · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC · 0 maps
OverpassLiquid ban
50%60%
Liquid · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +10%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLiquid remove Overpass
2. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
3. PickLiquid take Inferno
4. PickHEROIC take Dust2
5. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
6. BanLiquid remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Liquid 54%HEROIC 46%
The model gave 54% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Liquid 77%HEROIC 23%
The model gave 77% on Liquid — the map was taken by Liquid.
Model check result
Model favoriteLiquid · 52%
Series resultLiquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2