ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
los kogutos#123 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukelos kogutos pick
75%63%
los kogutos · 8 mapsedge los kogutos +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%69%
los kogutos · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%BASEMENT BOYS · 9 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
40%64%
los kogutos · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +24%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%50%
los kogutos · 8 mapsnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 8 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%56%
los kogutos · 2 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Cachelos kogutos ban
38%50%
los kogutos · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 2 maps
Infernolos kogutos ban
50%40%
los kogutos · 0 mapsedge los kogutos +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banlos kogutos remove Inferno
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
3. Picklos kogutos take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. Banlos kogutos remove Cache
DeciderAncient (58% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
los kogutos 36%BASEMENT BOYS 64%
The model gave 64% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
los kogutos 53%BASEMENT BOYS 47%
The model gave 53% on los kogutos — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 56%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2