ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
LPH#150 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Revise#160 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
53%57%
LPH · 11 mapsnearly even -4%Revise · 3 maps
Dust2LPH ban
58%56%
LPH · 8 mapsnearly even +2%Revise · 5 maps
NukeRevise ban
54%50%
LPH · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Revise · 0 maps
AnubisRevise ban
50%50%
LPH · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Revise · 2 maps
CacheRevise pick
29%38%
LPH · 3 mapsedge Revise +9%Revise · 4 maps
InfernoLPH pick
70%60%
LPH · 6 mapsedge LPH +10%Revise · 1 map
MirageLPH ban
50%60%
LPH · 0 mapsedge Revise +10%Revise · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLPH remove Mirage
2. BanRevise remove Nuke
3. PickLPH take Inferno
4. PickRevise take Cache
5. BanRevise remove Anubis
6. BanLPH remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (53% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
LPH 37%Revise 63%
The model gave 63% on Revise — the map was taken by LPH.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
LPH 64%Revise 36%
The model gave 64% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 51%
Series resultLPH 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2