ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lynn Vision#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Just Swing#158 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Lynn Vision pick
54%47%
Lynn Vision · 9 mapsedge Lynn Vision +7%Just Swing · 11 maps
AncientJust Swing ban
64%40%
Lynn Vision · 7 mapsedge Lynn Vision +24%Just Swing · 11 maps
InfernoLynn Vision ban
50%45%
Lynn Vision · 6 mapsedge Lynn Vision +5%Just Swing · 7 maps
CacheLynn Vision ban
33%69%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Just Swing +36%Just Swing · 9 maps
NukeJust Swing pick
56%63%
Lynn Vision · 5 mapsedge Just Swing +7%Just Swing · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
Lynn Vision · 2 mapsedge Lynn Vision +7%Just Swing · 1 map
AnubisJust Swing ban
40%50%
Lynn Vision · 1 mapedge Just Swing +10%Just Swing · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanLynn Vision remove Cache
2. BanJust Swing remove Anubis
3. PickLynn Vision take Dust2
4. PickJust Swing take Nuke
5. BanJust Swing remove Ancient
6. BanLynn Vision remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:11
Lynn Vision 16%Just Swing 84%
The model gave 84% on Just Swing — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Lynn Vision 60%Just Swing 40%
The model gave 60% on Lynn Vision — the map was taken by Lynn Vision.
Model check result
Model favoriteLynn Vision · 81%
Series resultLynn Vision 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2