ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marca Registradaloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NuTorious#202 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarca Registrada pick
50%29%
Marca Registrada · 0 mapsedge Marca Registrada +21%NuTorious · 10 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%50%
Marca Registrada · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NuTorious · 10 maps
InfernoMarca Registrada ban
50%31%
Marca Registrada · 0 mapsedge Marca Registrada +19%NuTorious · 9 maps
CacheNuTorious ban
50%44%
Marca Registrada · 0 mapsedge Marca Registrada +6%NuTorious · 5 maps
NukeNuTorious ban
50%43%
Marca Registrada · 0 mapsedge Marca Registrada +7%NuTorious · 3 maps
AnubisMarca Registrada ban
50%33%
Marca Registrada · 0 mapsedge Marca Registrada +17%NuTorious · 2 maps
DefaultNuTorious pick
40%50%
Marca Registrada · 1 mapedge NuTorious +10%NuTorious · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarca Registrada remove Anubis
2. BanNuTorious remove Nuke
3. PickMarca Registrada take Ancient
4. PickNuTorious take Default
5. BanNuTorious remove Cache
6. BanMarca Registrada remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
Marca Registrada 72%NuTorious 28%
The model gave 72% on Marca Registrada — the map was taken by Marca Registrada.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
Marca Registrada 47%NuTorious 53%
The model gave 53% on NuTorious — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
Marca Registrada 56%NuTorious 44%
The model gave 56% on Marca Registrada — the map was taken by NuTorious.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuTorious · 55%
Series resultNuTorious 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3