ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
65%23%
Marsborne · 13 mapsedge Marsborne +42%FarmVille · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
65%63%
Marsborne · 16 mapsnearly even +2%FarmVille · 4 maps
Dust2FarmVille pick
58%43%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +15%FarmVille · 10 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
62%60%
Marsborne · 9 mapsnearly even +2%FarmVille · 6 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisFarmVille ban
70%60%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +10%FarmVille · 1 map
CacheMarsborne ban
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge FarmVille +10%FarmVille · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Cache
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickFarmVille take Dust2
5. BanFarmVille remove Anubis
6. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (65% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Marsborne 62%FarmVille 38%
The model gave 62% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 87%FarmVille 13%
The model gave 87% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 75%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2