CROSSFIRE Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KODEX#244 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMarsborne pick
56%40%
Marsborne · 12 mapsedge Marsborne +16%KODEX · 1 map
InfernoKODEX ban
60%50%
Marsborne · 11 mapsedge Marsborne +10%KODEX · 0 maps
Dust2KODEX ban
58%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +8%KODEX · 0 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%40%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +10%KODEX · 1 map
MirageMarsborne ban
60%50%
Marsborne · 6 mapsedge Marsborne +10%KODEX · 0 maps
AnubisKODEX pick
57%50%
Marsborne · 3 mapsedge Marsborne +7%KODEX · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge Marsborne +17%KODEX · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
2. BanKODEX remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Ancient
4. PickKODEX take Anubis
5. BanKODEX remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Marsborne 54%KODEX 46%
The model gave 54% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Marsborne 68%KODEX 32%
The model gave 68% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 70%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2