StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
regain#199 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Mirageregain ban
64%50%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +14%regain · 6 maps
Ancientregain pick
64%56%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +8%regain · 5 maps
InfernoMarsborne pick
67%43%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +24%regain · 3 maps
Dust2Marsborne ban
50%56%
Marsborne · 2 mapsedge regain +6%regain · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%60%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +3%regain · 1 map
Overpassregain ban
50%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +0%regain · 0 maps
CacheMarsborne ban
40%60%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge regain +20%regain · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Dust2
2. Banregain remove Overpass
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. Pickregain take Ancient
5. Banregain remove Mirage
6. BanMarsborne remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Marsborne 61%regain 39%
The model gave 61% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
Marsborne 61%regain 39%
The model gave 61% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteregain · 63%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2