NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#84 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Without a Roof#119 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMarsborne pick
77%44%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +33%Without a Roof · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
69%50%
Marsborne · 9 mapsedge Marsborne +19%Without a Roof · 4 maps
Dust2Without a Roof ban
58%43%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +15%Without a Roof · 3 maps
MirageMarsborne ban
70%67%
Marsborne · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Without a Roof · 5 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Without a Roof · 2 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
57%60%
Marsborne · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Without a Roof · 1 map
OverpassWithout a Roof pick
50%50%
Marsborne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
3. PickMarsborne take Inferno
4. PickWithout a Roof take Overpass
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (69% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Marsborne 67%Without a Roof 33%
The model gave 67% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Infernoprediction missed6:13
Marsborne 82%Without a Roof 18%
The model gave 82% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Without a Roof.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 67%
Series resultWithout a Roof 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2