CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
67%20%
mellren · 29 mapsedge mellren +47%Bebop · 11 maps
Dust2Bebop pick
53%45%
mellren · 11 mapsedge mellren +8%Bebop · 18 maps
Nukemellren ban
19%47%
mellren · 12 mapsedge Bebop +28%Bebop · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%33%
mellren · 15 mapsedge mellren +25%Bebop · 5 maps
AncientBebop ban
70%50%
mellren · 19 mapsedge mellren +20%Bebop · 0 maps
AnubisBebop ban
73%40%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +33%Bebop · 6 maps
Defaultmellren ban
50%56%
mellren · 4 mapsedge Bebop +6%Bebop · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickBebop take Dust2
5. BanBebop remove Anubis
6. Banmellren remove Default
DeciderInferno (58% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
mellren 90%Bebop 10%
The model gave 90% on mellren — the map was taken by Bebop.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
mellren 55%Bebop 45%
The model gave 55% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
mellren 73%Bebop 27%
The model gave 73% on mellren — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 65%
Series resultBebop 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3