NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
65%41%
mellren · 30 mapsedge mellren +24%Lavked · 25 maps
Dust2Lavked pick
65%52%
mellren · 13 mapsedge mellren +13%Lavked · 25 maps
AncientLavked ban
73%43%
mellren · 18 mapsedge mellren +30%Lavked · 19 maps
Nukemellren ban
19%43%
mellren · 12 mapsedge Lavked +24%Lavked · 19 maps
InfernoLavked ban
58%33%
mellren · 15 mapsedge mellren +25%Lavked · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
73%50%
mellren · 7 mapsedge mellren +23%Lavked · 12 maps
Defaultmellren ban
50%29%
mellren · 4 mapsedge mellren +21%Lavked · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Nuke
2. BanLavked remove Inferno
3. Pickmellren take Mirage
4. PickLavked take Dust2
5. BanLavked remove Ancient
6. Banmellren remove Default
DeciderAnubis (73% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
mellren 60%Lavked 40%
The model gave 60% on mellren — the map was taken by Lavked.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
mellren 80%Lavked 20%
The model gave 80% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
mellren 72%Lavked 28%
The model gave 72% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 53%
Series resultmellren 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3