CCT 2026 Challengers Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%45%
mellren · 4 mapsedge mellren +5%Noir Verse · 7 maps
Dust2mellren pick
50%45%
mellren · 4 mapsedge mellren +5%Noir Verse · 7 maps
MirageNoir Verse ban
71%60%
mellren · 3 mapsedge mellren +11%Noir Verse · 6 maps
NukeNoir Verse pick
50%50%
mellren · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 8 maps
Anubismellren ban
50%44%
mellren · 0 mapsedge mellren +6%Noir Verse · 5 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
63%40%
mellren · 4 mapsedge mellren +23%Noir Verse · 1 map
Cachemellren ban
50%50%
mellren · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmellren remove Cache
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. Pickmellren take Dust2
4. PickNoir Verse take Nuke
5. BanNoir Verse remove Mirage
6. Banmellren remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
mellren 53%Noir Verse 47%
The model gave 53% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
mellren 58%Noir Verse 42%
The model gave 58% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 54%
Series resultmellren 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2