ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:1
LP#107 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMETANOIA Wolves pick
56%56%
METANOIA Wolves · 12 mapsnearly even +0%LP · 12 maps
Dust2LP ban
40%36%
METANOIA Wolves · 16 mapsnearly even +4%LP · 7 maps
MirageMETANOIA Wolves ban
15%31%
METANOIA Wolves · 9 mapsedge LP +16%LP · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%47%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge LP +14%LP · 11 maps
InfernoLP pick
29%43%
METANOIA Wolves · 3 mapsedge LP +14%LP · 10 maps
CacheMETANOIA Wolves ban
29%69%
METANOIA Wolves · 3 mapsedge LP +40%LP · 9 maps
AnubisLP ban
44%50%
METANOIA Wolves · 5 mapsedge LP +6%LP · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Cache
2. BanLP remove Anubis
3. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Ancient
4. PickLP take Inferno
5. BanLP remove Dust2
6. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (33% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
METANOIA Wolves 50%LP 50%
The model gave 50% on METANOIA Wolves — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 64%
Series resultLP 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1