ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDONSTU pick
50%48%
Metizport · 2 mapsnearly even +2%DONSTU · 19 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
50%35%
Metizport · 0 mapsedge Metizport +15%DONSTU · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%43%
Metizport · 4 mapsedge Metizport +20%DONSTU · 10 maps
InfernoDONSTU ban
44%50%
Metizport · 5 mapsedge DONSTU +6%DONSTU · 8 maps
NukeMetizport pick
45%30%
Metizport · 7 mapsedge Metizport +15%DONSTU · 6 maps
CacheMetizport ban
40%46%
Metizport · 1 mapedge DONSTU +6%DONSTU · 9 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
60%50%
Metizport · 6 mapsedge Metizport +10%DONSTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMetizport remove Dust2
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickMetizport take Nuke
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
6. BanMetizport remove Cache
DeciderAncient (63% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed16:14
Metizport 49%DONSTU 51%
The model gave 51% on DONSTU — the map was taken by Metizport.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Metizport 69%DONSTU 31%
The model gave 69% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 64%
Series resultMetizport 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2