ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Misa#124 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
41%24%
Misa · 28 mapsedge Misa +17%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
MirageMisa ban
38%29%
Misa · 17 mapsedge Misa +9%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
CacheMOUZ NXT pick
39%50%
Misa · 14 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +11%MOUZ NXT · 12 maps
NukeMisa ban
50%61%
Misa · 12 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +11%MOUZ NXT · 14 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
48%50%
Misa · 21 mapnearly even -2%MOUZ NXT · 4 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
53%40%
Misa · 11 mapsedge Misa +13%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
36%67%
Misa · 7 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +31%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMisa remove Nuke
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickMisa take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Cache
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. BanMisa remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (36% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
Misa 71%MOUZ NXT 29%
The model gave 71% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Misa 36%MOUZ NXT 64%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Misa 39%MOUZ NXT 61%
The model gave 61% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 54%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3