IEM Beijing 2026 Asia Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Morningstarloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rare Atom#105 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMorningstar pick
50%60%
Morningstar · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
CacheMorningstar ban
50%60%
Morningstar · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Dust2Rare Atom ban
50%40%
Morningstar · 0 mapsedge Morningstar +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
InfernoRare Atom pick
50%60%
Morningstar · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
MirageRare Atom ban
50%60%
Morningstar · 0 mapsedge Rare Atom +10%Rare Atom · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMorningstar remove Cache
2. BanRare Atom remove Dust2
3. PickMorningstar take Ancient
4. PickRare Atom take Inferno
5. BanRare Atom remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Morningstar 63%Rare Atom 37%
The model gave 63% on Morningstar — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
Morningstar 37%Rare Atom 63%
The model gave 63% on Rare Atom — the map was taken by Rare Atom.
Model check result
Model favoriteRare Atom · 70%
Series resultRare Atom 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2