ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ENCE#112 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ NXT pick
57%53%
MOUZ NXT · 24 mapsnearly even +4%ENCE · 13 maps
MirageENCE pick
26%54%
MOUZ NXT · 15 mapsedge ENCE +28%ENCE · 20 maps
Dust2ENCE ban
24%47%
MOUZ NXT · 17 mapsedge ENCE +23%ENCE · 11 maps
Cachepossible decider
47%46%
MOUZ NXT · 15 mapsnearly even +1%ENCE · 9 maps
AncientENCE ban
60%22%
MOUZ NXT · 11 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +38%ENCE · 5 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
40%54%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge ENCE +14%ENCE · 9 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
40%59%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge ENCE +19%ENCE · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanENCE remove Ancient
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Nuke
4. PickENCE take Mirage
5. BanENCE remove Dust2
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
DeciderCache (47% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
MOUZ NXT 57%ENCE 43%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
MOUZ NXT 21%ENCE 79%
The model gave 79% on ENCE — the map was taken by ENCE.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
MOUZ NXT 26%ENCE 74%
The model gave 74% on ENCE — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 53%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3