NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLavked pick
30%69%
MOUZ NXT · 6 mapsedge Lavked +39%Lavked · 12 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT pick
56%47%
MOUZ NXT · 5 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +9%Lavked · 11 maps
NukeMOUZ NXT ban
50%60%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge Lavked +10%Lavked · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%73%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge Lavked +16%Lavked · 7 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%33%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +17%Lavked · 8 maps
OverpassLavked ban
33%60%
MOUZ NXT · 2 mapsedge Lavked +27%Lavked · 1 map
AnubisLavked ban
50%40%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Lavked · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
2. BanLavked remove Anubis
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Dust2
4. PickLavked take Mirage
5. BanLavked remove Overpass
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (57% / 73%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
MOUZ NXT 37%Lavked 63%
The model gave 63% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
MOUZ NXT 62%Lavked 38%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Mirageprediction correct14:16
MOUZ NXT 16%Lavked 84%
The model gave 84% on Lavked — the map was taken by Lavked.
Model check result
Model favoriteLavked · 75%
Series resultLavked 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3