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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
31%56%
MOUZ NXT · 9 mapsedge Noir Verse +25%Noir Verse · 5 maps
Dust2MOUZ NXT pick
50%43%
MOUZ NXT · 8 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +7%Noir Verse · 3 maps
NukeNoir Verse pick
50%67%
MOUZ NXT · 4 mapsedge Noir Verse +17%Noir Verse · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%43%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +14%Noir Verse · 3 maps
OverpassNoir Verse ban
29%40%
MOUZ NXT · 3 mapsedge Noir Verse +11%Noir Verse · 1 map
CacheMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
MOUZ NXT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +10%Noir Verse · 1 map
DefaultNoir Verse ban
60%50%
MOUZ NXT · 1 mapedge MOUZ NXT +10%Noir Verse · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ NXT remove Cache
2. BanNoir Verse remove Overpass
3. PickMOUZ NXT take Dust2
4. PickNoir Verse take Nuke
5. BanNoir Verse remove Default
6. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (57% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
MOUZ NXT 47%Noir Verse 53%
The model gave 53% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
MOUZ NXT 67%Noir Verse 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
MOUZ NXT 60%Noir Verse 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 69%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3