StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NRG#30 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMOUZ ban
38%55%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge NRG +17%NRG · 7 maps
NukeMOUZ pick
67%73%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge NRG +6%NRG · 7 maps
MirageNRG ban
75%60%
MOUZ · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +15%NRG · 6 maps
Dust2MOUZ ban
62%75%
MOUZ · 9 mapsedge NRG +13%NRG · 4 maps
CacheNRG pick
60%77%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge NRG +17%NRG · 9 maps
InfernoNRG ban
71%50%
MOUZ · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +21%NRG · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
2. BanNRG remove Mirage
3. PickMOUZ take Nuke
4. PickNRG take Cache
5. BanNRG remove Inferno
6. BanMOUZ remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
MOUZ 29%NRG 71%
The model gave 71% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
MOUZ 74%NRG 26%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
MOUZ 35%NRG 65%
The model gave 65% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 94%
Series resultNRG 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3