ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nas#189 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kaleido#154 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKaleido pick
50%55%
Nas · 6 mapsedge Kaleido +5%Kaleido · 16 maps
Dust2Nas pick
50%63%
Nas · 8 mapsedge Kaleido +13%Kaleido · 12 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%40%
Nas · 4 mapsedge Nas +10%Kaleido · 6 maps
NukeKaleido ban
55%57%
Nas · 7 mapsnearly even -2%Kaleido · 3 maps
InfernoNas ban
50%42%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +8%Kaleido · 8 maps
CacheKaleido ban
40%25%
Nas · 1 mapedge Nas +15%Kaleido · 4 maps
AnubisNas ban
50%33%
Nas · 0 mapsedge Nas +17%Kaleido · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNas remove Inferno
2. BanKaleido remove Cache
3. PickNas take Dust2
4. PickKaleido take Ancient
5. BanKaleido remove Nuke
6. BanNas remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Nas 48%Kaleido 52%
The model gave 52% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Nas.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Nas 35%Kaleido 65%
The model gave 65% on Kaleido — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Nas 60%Kaleido 40%
The model gave 60% on Nas — the map was taken by Kaleido.
Model check result
Model favoriteKaleido · 64%
Series resultKaleido 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3