FOX Legacy Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SAW ban
39%43%
NAVI Junior · 19 mapsnearly even -4%SAW · 3 maps
MirageSAW ban
67%60%
NAVI Junior · 20 mapsedge NAVI Junior +7%SAW · 1 map
AnubisNAVI Junior pick
61%50%
NAVI Junior · 14 mapsedge NAVI Junior +11%SAW · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
29%56%
NAVI Junior · 10 mapsedge SAW +27%SAW · 5 maps
NukeNAVI Junior ban
38%70%
NAVI Junior · 9 mapsedge SAW +32%SAW · 6 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
33%77%
NAVI Junior · 2 mapsedge SAW +44%SAW · 9 maps
CacheSAW pick
38%70%
NAVI Junior · 4 mapsedge SAW +32%SAW · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
2. BanSAW remove Mirage
3. PickNAVI Junior take Anubis
4. PickSAW take Cache
5. BanSAW remove Dust2
6. BanNAVI Junior remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (29% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
NAVI Junior 19%SAW 81%
The model gave 81% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Anubisprediction missed9:13
NAVI Junior 64%SAW 36%
The model gave 64% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 64%
Series resultSAW 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2