NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
50%67%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +17%Walczaki · 17 maps
AncientNemesis pick
67%67%
Nemesis · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Walczaki · 11 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%64%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Walczaki +14%Walczaki · 7 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%75%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +25%Walczaki · 8 maps
InfernoWalczaki ban
67%56%
Nemesis · 2 mapsedge Nemesis +11%Walczaki · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%56%
Nemesis · 1 mapnearly even +4%Walczaki · 5 maps
MirageNemesis ban
50%70%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +20%Walczaki · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Nemesis 31%Walczaki 69%
The model gave 69% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Nemesis 64%Walczaki 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Nemesis 30%Walczaki 70%
The model gave 70% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3