NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#55 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Walczaki#44 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
50%60%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 1 map
MirageNemesis pick
50%60%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +10%Walczaki · 1 map
NukeWalczaki ban
50%40%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +10%Walczaki · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Dust2
2. BanWalczaki remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Nemesis 57%Walczaki 43%
The model gave 57% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
Nemesis 53%Walczaki 47%
The model gave 53% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
Nemesis 40%Walczaki 60%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultWalczaki 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3