Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard#39 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWildcard ban
52%50%
Nemesis · 17 mapsnearly even +2%Wildcard · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
69%43%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Nemesis +26%Wildcard · 3 maps
InfernoNemesis ban
46%44%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Wildcard · 5 maps
MirageWildcard ban
57%38%
Nemesis · 10 mapsedge Nemesis +19%Wildcard · 4 maps
NukeNemesis pick
62%29%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +33%Wildcard · 3 maps
CacheNemesis ban
56%50%
Nemesis · 5 mapsedge Nemesis +6%Wildcard · 2 maps
DefaultWildcard pick
38%50%
Nemesis · 4 mapsedge Wildcard +12%Wildcard · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Cache
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickNemesis take Nuke
4. PickWildcard take Default
5. BanWildcard remove Mirage
6. BanNemesis remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (69% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
Nemesis 49%Wildcard 51%
The model gave 51% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
Nemesis 77%Wildcard 23%
The model gave 77% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 52%
Series resultWildcard 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2