1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Color pick
53%65%
Nemiga · 11 mapsedge Color +12%Color · 13 maps
AncientNemiga ban
41%58%
Nemiga · 13 mapsedge Color +17%Color · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
64%69%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Color +5%Color · 9 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
73%60%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +13%Color · 6 maps
CacheColor ban
43%40%
Nemiga · 3 mapsnearly even +3%Color · 6 maps
NukeColor ban
55%50%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +5%Color · 0 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
50%44%
Nemiga · 0 mapsedge Nemiga +6%Color · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanColor remove Nuke
3. PickNemiga take Anubis
4. PickColor take Dust2
5. BanColor remove Cache
6. BanNemiga remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (64% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Nemiga 36%Color 64%
The model gave 64% on Color — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Nemiga 67%Color 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 54%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2