NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#22 in the world · win 2:0series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
56%47%
Nemiga · 23 mapsedge Nemiga +9%FOKUS · 11 maps
Dust2Nemiga ban
55%47%
Nemiga · 18 mapsedge Nemiga +8%FOKUS · 11 maps
NukeFOKUS ban
65%47%
Nemiga · 13 mapsedge Nemiga +18%FOKUS · 11 maps
CacheFOKUS pick
69%79%
Nemiga · 12 mapsedge FOKUS +10%FOKUS · 10 maps
MirageNemiga pick
74%45%
Nemiga · 15 mapsedge Nemiga +29%FOKUS · 7 maps
AnubisFOKUS ban
72%63%
Nemiga · 14 mapsedge Nemiga +9%FOKUS · 4 maps
InfernoNemiga ban
60%38%
Nemiga · 1 mapedge Nemiga +22%FOKUS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Inferno
2. BanFOKUS remove Anubis
3. PickNemiga take Mirage
4. PickFOKUS take Cache
5. BanFOKUS remove Nuke
6. BanNemiga remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (56% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Nemiga 55%FOKUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Mirageprediction correct22:20
Nemiga 79%FOKUS 21%
The model gave 79% on Nemiga — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga · 55%
Series resultNemiga 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2