1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga#46 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
K27#34 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNemiga ban
42%57%
Nemiga · 15 mapsedge K27 +15%K27 · 17 maps
MirageK27 pick
64%71%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge K27 +7%K27 · 20 maps
NukeK27 ban
55%35%
Nemiga · 7 mapsedge Nemiga +20%K27 · 16 maps
CacheNemiga ban
50%50%
Nemiga · 4 mapsnearly even +0%K27 · 18 maps
Dust2K27 ban
56%57%
Nemiga · 12 mapsnearly even -1%K27 · 10 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
77%58%
Nemiga · 9 mapsedge Nemiga +19%K27 · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%43%
Nemiga · 1 mapnearly even -3%K27 · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemiga remove Cache
2. BanK27 remove Nuke
3. PickNemiga take Anubis
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Dust2
6. BanNemiga remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed10:13
Nemiga 73%K27 27%
The model gave 73% on Nemiga — the map was taken by K27.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Nemiga 39%K27 61%
The model gave 61% on K27 — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Nemiga 69%K27 31%
The model gave 69% on Nemiga — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 65%
Series resultK27 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3