ESL Challenger League Season 52 Asia-Pacific Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NEXVOID#102 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NSNloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNEXVOID pick
60%50%
NEXVOID · 6 mapsedge NEXVOID +10%NSN · 0 maps
AncientNSN ban
75%50%
NEXVOID · 4 mapsedge NEXVOID +25%NSN · 0 maps
Dust2NSN pick
33%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsedge NSN +17%NSN · 0 maps
NukeNSN ban
50%50%
NEXVOID · 2 mapsnearly even +0%NSN · 0 maps
CacheNEXVOID ban
40%50%
NEXVOID · 1 mapedge NSN +10%NSN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNEXVOID remove Cache
2. BanNSN remove Ancient
3. PickNEXVOID take Inferno
4. PickNSN take Dust2
5. BanNSN remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:1
NEXVOID 57%NSN 43%
The model gave 57% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Ancientprediction correct13:5
NEXVOID 77%NSN 23%
The model gave 77% on NEXVOID — the map was taken by NEXVOID.
Model check result
Model favoriteNEXVOID · 61%
Series resultNEXVOID 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2