ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Noir Verse#148 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
67%65%
Noir Verse · 11 mapsnearly even +2%Atreides · 13 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
50%36%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +14%Atreides · 10 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
50%27%
Noir Verse · 12 mapsedge Noir Verse +23%Atreides · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
40%31%
Noir Verse · 6 mapsedge Noir Verse +9%Atreides · 12 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
43%45%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsnearly even -2%Atreides · 7 maps
NukeNoir Verse ban
50%40%
Noir Verse · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +10%Atreides · 6 maps
CacheNoir Verse pick
58%40%
Noir Verse · 8 mapsedge Noir Verse +18%Atreides · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNoir Verse remove Nuke
2. BanAtreides remove Dust2
3. PickNoir Verse take Cache
4. PickAtreides take Mirage
5. BanAtreides remove Anubis
6. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (40% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Noir Verse 75%Atreides 25%
The model gave 75% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Atreides.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
Noir Verse 57%Atreides 43%
The model gave 57% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
Noir Verse 52%Atreides 48%
The model gave 52% on Noir Verse — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 58%
Series resultAtreides 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3