StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#30 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheNRG pick
79%50%
NRG · 10 mapsedge NRG +29%Aurora · 4 maps
MirageNRG ban
60%58%
NRG · 6 mapsnearly even +2%Aurora · 8 maps
NukeAurora pick
73%70%
NRG · 7 mapsnearly even +3%Aurora · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
45%56%
NRG · 7 mapsedge Aurora +11%Aurora · 5 maps
Dust2Aurora ban
78%44%
NRG · 5 mapsedge NRG +34%Aurora · 5 maps
AncientAurora ban
55%40%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +15%Aurora · 1 map
AnubisNRG ban
50%60%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%Aurora · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickAurora take Nuke
5. BanAurora remove Dust2
6. BanNRG remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (45% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed7:13
NRG 81%Aurora 19%
The model gave 81% on NRG — the map was taken by Aurora.
Mirageprediction correct17:19
NRG 49%Aurora 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 82%
Series resultAurora 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2