FRAG 20 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#51 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Passion UA#33 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPassion UA ban
60%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge NRG +10%Passion UA · 0 maps
Dust2NRG ban
50%60%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +10%Passion UA · 1 map
InfernoNRG pick
60%50%
NRG · 1 mapedge NRG +10%Passion UA · 0 maps
MiragePassion UA pick
50%60%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Passion UA +10%Passion UA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Dust2
2. BanPassion UA remove Ancient
3. PickNRG take Inferno
4. PickPassion UA take Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct4:13
NRG 47%Passion UA 53%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
NRG 43%Passion UA 57%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the map was taken by NRG.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
NRG 60%Passion UA 40%
The model gave 60% on NRG — the map was taken by Passion UA.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 51%
Series resultPassion UA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3