FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#31 in the world · win 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheNRG pick
59%50%
NRG · 13 mapsedge NRG +9%Tactical Chaos · 0 maps
MirageNRG ban
46%50%
NRG · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Tactical Chaos · 0 maps
InfernoTactical Chaos pick
42%50%
NRG · 8 mapsedge Tactical Chaos +8%Tactical Chaos · 0 maps
NukeTactical Chaos ban
67%50%
NRG · 8 mapsedge NRG +17%Tactical Chaos · 0 maps
AncientNRG ban
50%50%
NRG · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Tactical Chaos · 0 maps
Dust2Tactical Chaos ban
60%50%
NRG · 6 mapsedge NRG +10%Tactical Chaos · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Mirage
2. BanTactical Chaos remove Nuke
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickTactical Chaos take Inferno
5. BanTactical Chaos remove Dust2
6. BanNRG remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
NRG 57%Tactical Chaos 43%
The model gave 57% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
NRG 53%Tactical Chaos 47%
The model gave 53% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 87%
Series resultNRG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2