PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 North America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
NRG#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Without a Roof#119 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
56%44%
NRG · 5 mapsedge NRG +12%Without a Roof · 5 maps
MirageWithout a Roof pick
67%67%
NRG · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 5 maps
AncientNRG ban
44%57%
NRG · 5 mapsedge Without a Roof +13%Without a Roof · 3 maps
CacheNRG pick
82%50%
NRG · 7 mapsedge NRG +32%Without a Roof · 0 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
63%50%
NRG · 4 mapsedge NRG +13%Without a Roof · 2 maps
Dust2Without a Roof ban
67%50%
NRG · 2 mapsedge NRG +17%Without a Roof · 2 maps
AnubisNRG ban
50%60%
NRG · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +10%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNRG remove Anubis
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
3. PickNRG take Cache
4. PickWithout a Roof take Mirage
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Dust2
6. BanNRG remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (56% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
NRG 35%Without a Roof 65%
The model gave 65% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by NRG.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
NRG 69%Without a Roof 31%
The model gave 69% on NRG — the map was taken by NRG.
Model check result
Model favoriteNRG · 69%
Series resultNRG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2