WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CYBERSHOKE#90 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNuclear TigeRES pick
63%52%
Nuclear TigeRES · 20 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +11%CYBERSHOKE · 17 maps
Dust2CYBERSHOKE pick
42%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 20 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +20%CYBERSHOKE · 17 maps
AnubisCYBERSHOKE ban
50%33%
Nuclear TigeRES · 16 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
46%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsnearly even -4%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
InfernoCYBERSHOKE ban
78%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%CYBERSHOKE · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%58%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +36%CYBERSHOKE · 8 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
56%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge CYBERSHOKE +11%CYBERSHOKE · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Inferno
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Ancient
4. PickCYBERSHOKE take Dust2
5. BanCYBERSHOKE remove Anubis
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
DeciderNuke (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
Nuclear TigeRES 28%CYBERSHOKE 72%
The model gave 72% on CYBERSHOKE — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Anubisprediction correct13:10
Nuclear TigeRES 69%CYBERSHOKE 31%
The model gave 69% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 71%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2