Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
35%65%
Nuclear TigeRES · 16 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +30%ex-Zero Tenacity · 19 maps
Cacheex-Zero Tenacity pick
56%74%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +18%ex-Zero Tenacity · 23 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
81%61%
Nuclear TigeRES · 12 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +20%ex-Zero Tenacity · 14 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
42%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 8 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +25%ex-Zero Tenacity · 17 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
44%62%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +18%ex-Zero Tenacity · 9 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
65%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 19 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +15%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +28%ex-Zero Tenacity · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Cache
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (35% / 65%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
Nuclear TigeRES 76%ex-Zero Tenacity 24%
The model gave 76% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
Nuclear TigeRES 20%ex-Zero Tenacity 80%
The model gave 80% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Nukeprediction missed16:14
Nuclear TigeRES 26%ex-Zero Tenacity 74%
The model gave 74% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 67%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3