FRAG TAP Reloaded 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFRZ ban
50%40%
NXG · 2 mapsedge NXG +10%FRZ · 1 map
AncientFRZ pick
50%50%
NXG · 0 mapsnearly even +0%FRZ · 2 maps
Dust2NXG pick
33%50%
NXG · 2 mapsedge FRZ +17%FRZ · 0 maps
AnubisNXG ban
50%40%
NXG · 0 mapsedge NXG +10%FRZ · 1 map
MirageNXG ban
50%40%
NXG · 0 mapsedge NXG +10%FRZ · 1 map
OverpassFRZ ban
60%50%
NXG · 1 mapedge NXG +10%FRZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNXG remove Anubis
2. BanFRZ remove Inferno
3. PickNXG take Dust2
4. PickFRZ take Ancient
5. BanFRZ remove Overpass
6. BanNXG remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
NXG 47%FRZ 53%
The model gave 53% on FRZ — the map was taken by FRZ.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
NXG 36%FRZ 64%
The model gave 64% on FRZ — the map was taken by FRZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteFRZ · 53%
Series resultFRZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2