ESEA Advanced Season 57 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · win 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
bankaPEPSI#213 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientOLDBOYS PL pick
50%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsnearly even +0%bankaPEPSI · 0 maps
Dust2bankaPEPSI pick
33%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsedge bankaPEPSI +17%bankaPEPSI · 0 maps
MiragebankaPEPSI ban
50%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 2 mapsnearly even +0%bankaPEPSI · 0 maps
AnubisOLDBOYS PL ban
60%50%
OLDBOYS PL · 1 mapedge OLDBOYS PL +10%bankaPEPSI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Anubis
2. BanbankaPEPSI remove Mirage
3. PickOLDBOYS PL take Ancient
4. PickbankaPEPSI take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
OLDBOYS PL 50%bankaPEPSI 50%
The model gave 50% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoritebankaPEPSI · 54%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1