NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#150 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
61%63%
Overtake Sector · 14 mapsnearly even -2%FarmVille · 4 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
46%20%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +26%FarmVille · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%44%
Overtake Sector · 8 mapsedge Overtake Sector +6%FarmVille · 5 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
38%50%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge FarmVille +12%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
57%60%
Overtake Sector · 3 mapsnearly even -3%FarmVille · 1 map
CacheOvertake Sector ban
67%50%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsedge Overtake Sector +17%FarmVille · 2 maps
OverpassFarmVille pick
50%50%
Overtake Sector · 2 mapsnearly even +0%FarmVille · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
2. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickFarmVille take Overpass
5. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
Overtake Sector 64%FarmVille 36%
The model gave 64% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Ancientprediction missed16:14
Overtake Sector 41%FarmVille 59%
The model gave 59% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 54%
Series resultOvertake Sector 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2