ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
71%60%
Overtake Sector · 20 mapsedge Overtake Sector +11%FarmVille · 6 maps
InfernoFarmVille ban
53%23%
Overtake Sector · 13 mapsedge Overtake Sector +30%FarmVille · 9 maps
Dust2Overtake Sector ban
46%38%
Overtake Sector · 9 mapsedge Overtake Sector +8%FarmVille · 9 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
50%57%
Overtake Sector · 10 mapsedge FarmVille +7%FarmVille · 3 maps
CacheFarmVille pick
63%50%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%FarmVille · 6 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
50%60%
Overtake Sector · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +10%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
2. BanFarmVille remove Inferno
3. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
4. PickFarmVille take Cache
5. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
6. BanOvertake Sector remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Overtake Sector 55%FarmVille 45%
The model gave 55% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Ancientprediction correct1:13
Overtake Sector 46%FarmVille 54%
The model gave 54% on FarmVille — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 69%
Series resultFarmVille 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2