IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
paiN#29 in the world · win 2:1series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FUT#8 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2paiN ban
60%60%
paiN · 1 mapnearly even +0%FUT · 1 map
MiragepaiN pick
50%33%
paiN · 0 mapsedge paiN +17%FUT · 2 maps
NukeFUT ban
50%33%
paiN · 0 mapsedge paiN +17%FUT · 2 maps
AncientFUT pick
50%60%
paiN · 0 mapsedge FUT +10%FUT · 1 map
AnubisFUT ban
60%50%
paiN · 1 mapedge paiN +10%FUT · 0 maps
OverpasspaiN ban
50%60%
paiN · 0 mapsedge FUT +10%FUT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanpaiN remove Overpass
2. BanFUT remove Anubis
3. PickpaiN take Mirage
4. PickFUT take Ancient
5. BanFUT remove Nuke
6. BanpaiN remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
paiN 69%FUT 31%
The model gave 69% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Overpassprediction correct10:13
paiN 37%FUT 63%
The model gave 63% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
paiN 50%FUT 50%
The model gave 50% on paiN — the map was taken by paiN.
Model check result
Model favoriteFUT · 73%
Series resultpaiN 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3