ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Permitta#102 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZ NXT#142 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukePermitta pick
47%62%
Permitta · 11 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +15%MOUZ NXT · 17 maps
MirageMOUZ NXT ban
58%29%
Permitta · 8 mapsedge Permitta +29%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
70%53%
Permitta · 6 mapsedge Permitta +17%MOUZ NXT · 13 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
25%21%
Permitta · 4 mapsnearly even +4%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
38%64%
Permitta · 9 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +26%MOUZ NXT · 7 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
67%44%
Permitta · 5 mapsedge Permitta +23%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
DefaultPermitta ban
33%67%
Permitta · 2 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +34%MOUZ NXT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPermitta remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
3. PickPermitta take Nuke
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Mirage
6. BanPermitta remove Default
DeciderCache (70% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
Permitta 24%MOUZ NXT 76%
The model gave 76% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Nukeprediction correct2:13
Permitta 38%MOUZ NXT 62%
The model gave 62% on MOUZ NXT — the map was taken by MOUZ NXT.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 58%
Series resultMOUZ NXT 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2