CCT 2026 Challengers South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Pugdesonesto ban
50%64%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsedge ALKA +14%ALKA · 10 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%54%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsnearly even -4%ALKA · 9 maps
AncientALKA pick
50%58%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsedge ALKA +8%ALKA · 8 maps
MirageALKA ban
50%55%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
InfernoPugdesonesto ban
50%60%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsedge ALKA +10%ALKA · 6 maps
CachePugdesonesto pick
50%50%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 2 maps
AnubisALKA ban
50%40%
Pugdesonesto · 0 mapsedge Pugdesonesto +10%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPugdesonesto remove Dust2
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickPugdesonesto take Cache
4. PickALKA take Ancient
5. BanALKA remove Mirage
6. BanPugdesonesto remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
Pugdesonesto 39%ALKA 61%
The model gave 61% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Infernoprediction correct5:13
Pugdesonesto 43%ALKA 57%
The model gave 57% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 65%
Series resultALKA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2