Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
60%45%
Raccoons · 1 mapedge Raccoons +15%Vexar · 16 maps
MirageRaccoons pick
67%50%
Raccoons · 5 mapsedge Raccoons +17%Vexar · 8 maps
NukeVexar ban
60%42%
Raccoons · 1 mapedge Raccoons +18%Vexar · 8 maps
DefaultRaccoons ban
50%50%
Raccoons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 8 maps
InfernoRaccoons ban
67%60%
Raccoons · 2 mapsedge Raccoons +7%Vexar · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%63%
Raccoons · 2 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
50%38%
Raccoons · 0 mapsedge Raccoons +12%Vexar · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRaccoons remove Default
2. BanVexar remove Nuke
3. PickRaccoons take Mirage
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanRaccoons remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Raccoons 62%Vexar 38%
The model gave 62% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Raccoons 69%Vexar 31%
The model gave 69% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteVexar · 55%
Series resultVexar 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2